AI timeline modes should be significantly before medians
lukasfinnveden.substack.com
I think your proabability distributions over possible AI timelines should have its mode significantly before its median. Here are a few different (highly related!) reasons for this: Semi-informative priors The most naive prior you could have about AGI arrival dates is maybe something like a laplace prior. This has the mode
AI timeline modes should be significantly before medians
AI timeline modes should be significantly…
AI timeline modes should be significantly before medians
I think your proabability distributions over possible AI timelines should have its mode significantly before its median. Here are a few different (highly related!) reasons for this: Semi-informative priors The most naive prior you could have about AGI arrival dates is maybe something like a laplace prior. This has the mode